Michael Gove has predicted the SNP will drop its demand for a second referendum on independence and instead push for “more resources from Westminster”.
The Levelling Up Secretary told the Scottish Conservatives’ spring conference in Glasgow that Humza Yousaf’s party will focus on its claim to be “Scotland’s party”.
He said the SNP had “over-reached” in its previous push for a section 30 order to secure a second referendum.
But Gove rejected Lord Frost’s suggestion that devolution and the powers of the Scottish Parliament should be rolled back.
Asked whether he thought the SNP would change its approach on constitutional matters, given First Minister Humza Yousaf’s move away from using the next General Election as a de facto referendum, Gove said: “They have a base which of course they need to keep riled up and believing that independence is just over the horizon.
“But at the same time, realistically, they know that the state of public opinion in Scotland is against any hasty referendum and very much focused on improving the delivery of services and strengthening the economy.
“The SNP know that now, that they’ve over-reached, so I suspect they will rebrand themselves as Scotland’s party fighting for more resources at Westminster and fighting to ensure that they deliver domestically in tune with Scottish values more broadly.”
He admitted this could be a challenge for the Conservatives, but added: “It’s also an opportunity for us to say at Westminster the people who are actually delivering most for Scotland are the Conservative government and Scottish Conservative MPs.
“And in the Scottish Parliament we quite rightly point out it’s a waste of time and money to have a minister for independence when we need to be concentrating on school, hospitals and the economy.”
He was also asked – by former Scottish Conservative MP and party chairman Sir Michael Hirst – about comments by Scotland’s leading historian Tom Devine that independence “was off the agenda for a generation” and if that could see pro union voters move away from the Conservatives if they felt the union was “safe”.
Mr Gove said: “I think we shouldn’t overthink these things. If we concentrate on making a strong pro union case. In almost every constituency in Scotland the SNP are either in first or second place, but if we have effective pro union voices, people who can work effectively with the UK government will benefit from anti-SNP feeling.
“The other thing which is even more important is continuing to make the case for the union and the benefits it brings. At some point there will be new SNP leadership and they will get their act together, during this period it’s incumbent on us to have benefits which prove why it’s best to be part of the union.”
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Later, speaking to journalists he said while independence was the SNP’s “raison d’etre, there’s a widespread acceptance that the difficulties they face at the moment and the compromised record they have on delivery, makes it more difficult for them to make that case.”
Asked if this belief is why the Prime Minister told the conference that more devolution was not “appropriate” he added: “The critical thing is that the powers the Scottish Parliament rightly has are used effectively, there are some which simply haven’t been used and where there’s been a failure to deliver. The important thing is that devolution exists to ensure the more effective delivery of public services closer to the people concerned, and I’m committed to devolution and we want to see it work, the argument is not over new powers but making sure we see existing powers used effectively.”
He also said he disagreed with Lord David Frost’s opinion that it was time to roll back devolution. “David’s a friend but I think he’s wrong about that. One of the things we’re trying to do in England is to extend devolution and my own view is that if there is to be a change of governance in Scotland it should be the strengthening of local government rather than hoarding power at Holyrood.”
In response to Mr Gove’s remarks, SNP MP David Linden said: “The SNP won a mandate for an independence referendum at the Scottish Parliament election, with a record number of votes – and we will continue to press for Scottish democracy to be respected and for people in Scotland to have a choice over our future.
“At the general election next year, voting SNP is the best way to beat the Tories in Scotland – and the only way to get rid of Westminster Tory governments for good with independence.
“If enough people vote SNP, Scotland could hold the balance of power at Westminster. A strong SNP team of MPs would block the Tories from government and extract the best deal for Scotland.”
By Gina Davidson@ginadavidsonlbc