Trump has suggested that China is free to buy oil from Iran if it wants, but urges Beijing to purchase more U.S. crude instead, essentially suggesting that more oil deals are the price for de-escalating things with Iran.
China’s purchases of Iranian barrels have surged past 1.5 million bpd, and the U.S. administration, despite the high-profile strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, is more interested in export competitiveness than in curbing illicit flows.
– Iraq is preparing to import LNG for the first time, from the U.S. Iraq’s domestic gas shortages have become acute, and American molecules are now being framed as a practical solution, politically viable in a post-Gas-for-Power scandal landscape.
– Moscow says it has captured a village in eastern Ukraine located near a lithium deposit, according to Russian state-linked sources. While the military significance is marginal, the location matters. Moscow is positioning itself not just as a spoiler in Ukraine but as a player in the global energy transition, chipping away at Western access to critical minerals while keeping gas exports steady.
– India remains non-committal on restarting oil purchases from Iran. While public signals are vague, private refiners are said to be running cost-benefit models against discounted Russian barrels and politically safer U.S. and Saudi flows. The geopolitical window is open.
